Matchup picks for every bowl game during the 2024 season.
Brad Crawford
College football's preseason top 25 AP Poll rankings release Monday and to commemorate the occasion, 2024 game-by-game bowl projections are here. Moving to 12 College Football Playoff teams — including four first-round home games and four byes to the highest-ranked conference champions — will bring new excitement to the sport and increases the likelihood of parity in December when the selection committee convenes for its final vote.
Bowl projections update weekly during the season, leading up to selection day. Bowl tie-ins, unless there are current contractual obligations in place, could change significantly based on how ESPN sees fit. For instance,with the Pac-12 no more, there are still six games with affiliations through the 2025 season and they are the Holiday, Alamo, Vegas, Los Angeles, Sun and Independence.
And despite severalcollege football bowl season tie-ins in flux ahead of the 2024 season, the Alamo Bowl's request to include SEC-bound Texas or Oklahoma in its 2024did not come to fruition, so the Sooners and Longhorns — if eligible — will play in SEC bowls.
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Preseason bowl projections for every game are here ahead of kickoff.
Armed ForcesBowl
Projection:Air Force vs.West Virginia
The Big 12 is wide open, and the Mountaineers are capable of causing havoc in the league standings with Garrett Greene at quarterback. And what happens if West Virginia opens the season with an upset win over Penn State? That would thrust this program into the top 25 and put the rest of the country on notice that Neal Brown's veteran-laden squad is ready to compete with the best.
BahamasBowl
Projection:Old Dominion vs. Eastern Michigan
68 VenturesBowl
Projection: Arkansas State vs.Bowling Green
On one of college football's hot seats heading into 2023, Butch Jones responded with a bowl appearance. Now, he hopes to take the Red Wolves to a winning campaign for the first time in his tenure, doing so in a league that's top-heavy with Appalachian State, Texas State and JMU in the Sun Belt — all projected bowl teams, by the way.
ArizonaBowl
Projection:Colorado State vs. Central Michigan
CamelliaBowl
Projection:Toledo vs.Louisiana
Somehow, Toledo hasheld onto coach Jason Candle in recent years despite interest from several major program vacancies. The Rockets went 11-3 as with an unbeaten regular season against MAC competition, the losses coming to Illinois, Miami of Ohio in the league title game and Wyoming in a bowl setting. The roster changes considerably in 2024, but Toledo should still be one of the best Group of Five teams.
Potato Bowl
Projection: UTSA vs. Western Michigan
First ResponderBowl
Projection:UCF vs.North Carolina
Chip Lindsey, who worked under Gus Malzahn at UCF in 2022, could match up with his former program during bowl season should this matchup come to fruition. UCF has more firepower returning offensively in the Big 12 and this could be the final season at UNC for coach Mack Brown, who is nearing retirement. The Tar Heels lost four consecutive bowl contests under Brown.
FriscoBowl
Projection: Wyoming vs. Rice
BirminghamBowl
Projection: Florida vs. Tulane
Can Billy Napier surprise everyone with a .500 finish against college football's toughest schedule? Hehas to pile up as many wins as possible early on given the brutality of the final five weeks of the slate — Georgia, Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida State. That is murderer's row in the SEC followed up with a rivalry finale against the preseason ACC favorites.
Cure Bowl
Projection:Memphis vs. Miami (Ohio)
FenwayBowl
Projection:USFvs.Duke
Keep an eye on USF in the American Athletic Conference. The Bulls play Alabama and Miami early, two likely preseason top 25 teams that are considerably more talented than any opponents Alex Golesh's squad will face over the rest of the schedule. USF will be battle-tested with an explosive offense led by Byrum Brown and capable of getting to the playoff if its runs the table post-Crimson Tide and Hurricanes.
HawaiiBowl
Projection:Fresno State vs. Jacksonville State
Myrtle BeachBowl
Projection: James Madison vs.FAU
After Curt Cignettideparted for the Indiana job and took several of JMU's top players with him, the Dukes are hungry to show they're still one of the Sun Belt's best under new coach Bob Chesney. At FAU, former Houston and Texas coach Tom Herman aims at getting the Owls bowl-eligible in Year 2 on the job in Boca Raton.
Boca RatonBowl
Projection:BYU vs. Appalachian State
Quick LaneBowl
Projection: Northern Illinois vs.Indiana
This one's a stretch, but projecting Cignetti in a bowl game to cap his first season as the Hoosiers' head coach would be a sizable win for Indiana's football program. In fact, Indiana's last bowl victory came in 1991 (Copper Bowl). And the Hoosiers have lost their last four bowl games dating back to 2015 by a combined 12 points. The Hoosiers' roster is portal-infused and Cignetti was one of this cycle's top hires.
New OrleansBowl
Projection:Marshall vs. Western Kentucky
Los AngelesBowl
Projection: Cal vs. Boise State
With Jaydn Ott returning at running back ahead of Cal's first season in the ACC, this should be a bowl team — even if the win total only hits the bare minimum. There are a couple swing games on the slate that will be all-important in getting to that threshold. As for Boise State, the early showdown at Oregon could catapult this team into the Group of Five's playoff conversation with a victory.
New MexicoBowl
Projection: Texas State vs. UNLV
MilitaryBowl
Projection:UAB vs.Georgia Tech
As the saying goes, there's no bigger jump for a coaching staff in transition than Year 1 to Year 2, so go with Trent Dilfer and the Blazers showing positive strides here as a 6-6 finisher in getting to bowl eligibility. Expectations are a good bit higher for the Yellow Jackets, who welcome back Haynes King, the former Texas A&M quarterback who tossed a career-best 27 touchdowns at Georgia Tech last fall.
PinstripeBowl
Projection: Boston Collegevs. Minnesota
Las VegasBowl
Projection: Texas A&M vs. Arizona
Ready for fireworks out West? This matchup between a couple borderline top 25 teams would surely bring the goods if it happens. Quarterback Noah Fifita is back for the Wildcats as they enter the Big 12 under first-year coachBrent Brennanwhile another new era commences in College Station with Mike Elko taking over.
GasparillaBowl
Projection:South Carolina vs. SMU
Guaranteed RateBowl
Projection: Rutgers vs. Texas Tech
Two teams with in-house expectations higher than the offseason love they're receiving nationally, the Scarlet Knights and Red Raiders feel good about their dark-horse chances as upper-tier finishers in their respective conferences this fall. Hovering around eight wins has been the norm for Joey McGuire at Texas Tech while Greg Schiano is coming off his first winning season at Rutgers since returning to the program in 2020.
IndependenceBowl
Projection: Oregon State vs. Army
MayoBowl
Projection: Syracuse vs. Wisconsin
There's a good chance Fran Brown and the Orange get to the postseason if they win three of their first four games. It's a schedule conducive to success in the ACC since it doesn't include matchups with Clemson or Florida State. At Wisconsin, Luke Fickell strives to avoid disappointment once more with the Badgers, who get Alabama early and play several other national title contenders in 2024.
LibertyBowl
Projection:Houston vs. Kentucky
HolidayBowl
Projection: Virginia Tech vs.Nebraska
Two programs on the rise under their respective coaches, Virginia Tech is one of the most veteran-heavy teams in the power conference ranks this fall while the Huskers are giving the keys to five-star true freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola following a momentous offseason. Can the Huskers handle the hype and will the Hokies take advantage of a favorable schedule? These are questions that will need to be answered to reach one of the top non-New Year's Six games.
Music City Bowl
Projection: Oklahoma vs. Washington
SunBowl
Projection:Louisvillevs. TCU
Pop-TartsBowl
Projection:Oklahoma Statevs. Clemson
The Cowboys and Tigers have never met on the gridiron, so needless to say this would be one of bowl season's most-anticipated matchups outside of the College Football Playoff. It would also mean organizers in Orlando lobbied for both selections, high-end finishers in the Big 12 and ACC not quite good enough to be voted into the playoff. No team in the Big 12 brings back more starters than Oklahoma State, a team anchored by reigning Doak Walker winner Ollie Gordon II.
Alamo Bowl
Projection: Kansas State vs. USC
TexasBowl
Projection: Kansas vs. Auburn
Citrus Bowl
Projection: Missourivs. Michigan
Expect the Citrus Bowl to get first dibs outside of the selection committee's top 12 and these two will be at the top of the pecking order just outside of the seven at-large spots in the playoff conversation. Michigan is coming off a perfect season and national championship, but has to play Texas early before another gauntlet of a schedule in conference play.
ReliaQuest Bowl
Projection:Tennessee vs. Iowa
Gator Bowl
Projection:NC State vs. LSU
CFB Playoff (first round)
No. 12 Liberty at No. 6 Texas
Is there a chance the SEC runner-up finishes as the league's third-highest seed in the playoff? It's possible. Tiebreakers are going to be interesting when determining the two teams who reach the league title game, but we're expecting some combination of Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss or Alabama to get there. Liberty, after another unbeaten season under Jamey Chadwell, gets the Group of Five's coveted slot.
No. 11 Notre Dame at No.5Ole Miss
What will another double-digit win season for Lane Kiffin get for the Rebels? We're projecting a spot in the playoff and a first-round home game.
No. 10Miami at No. 7Oregon
This would be a brutal opening-round playoff game for the Hurricanes, traveling across to country to play the Ducks in one of the nation's toughest venues.
No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Penn State
Two home games each for the SEC and Big Ten would look like a fair shake from the selection committee and the only way to get that this season is to make sure the seeding corresponds. Pick your poison in this matchup of high-rated finishers from both leagues as the Crimson Tide and Nittany Lions square off in Happy Valley.
CFB Playoff (quarterfinals)
No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Ohio State (Sugar Bowl)
The only "upset" in the first round in the 9/8 matchup, Alabama's second-round affair would be a date with top-seeded and unbeaten Ohio State. These two have met in the playoff before, most recently in the national championship game to end the 2020 season.
No. 7 Oregon vs. No. 2 Georgia(Rose Bowl)
Dan Lanning playing his former employer for a second time in his career means the Ducks and Bulldogs go to war in Pasadena. That would offer a backdrop for the ages as the projected SEC champions would be two wins away from a berth in the national title game.
No. 6 Texas vs. No. 3 Florida State (Peach Bowl)
After beating Liberty at home in the first round, the Longhorns go to Atlanta to take on Florida State, our projected ACC champion.
No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 4Utah (Fiesta Bowl)
The Big 12 is toughest league to call in August, but this Utah squad is veteran-laden with an underrated head coach.
CFB Playoff (semifinals)
No. 5 Ole Miss vs.No. 1Ohio State(Orange Bowl)
Two of the best offenses in the country matching up in Miami would be a fun one. Kiffintrying to come up with a game plan to combat Ohio State's star-studded defense would definitely be a major storyline in this game, along with Buckeyes running back Quinshon Judkins going up against his former team.
No. 6 Texas vs.No. 2Georgia (Cotton Bowl)
There will be SEC rematches in the expanded playoff era. That's just how it is when as many as four or five teams from the same league find a way to the 12-team format. Kirby Smart wants changes to bowl season and he's not going to be pleased with facing the Longhorns again after beating them in Atlanta for the SEC championship a few weeks prior. It's hard to beat a team multiple times and this could be the third and final bout between these two heavyweights this season. Get your popcorn ready.
CFB Playoff National Championship
No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia
Would there be any shock if the two most talented rosters in the country met in late January during college football's finale? These two programs battled two years ago in Atlanta during a terrific playoff semifinal game that catapulted former Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud toward the top of the 2023 NFL Draft. He gashed Georgia's secondary that evening, but it was the Bulldogs and former standout Stetson Bennett, who prevailed and moved on to the title game with a heroic second-half comeback.
